•  
  •  
 

Keywords

prospect theory, personal risks, statistical uncertainty, Bootstrap method

Abstract

Although the intelligence level of the power system is constantly improving, the operation, maintenance and repair work still require the direct participation of electricity workers, so it is of great significance to study the effective quantification of personal risks to ensure the safety of workers.Based on profoundly discussing the quantification model of personal risks of the workers in power systems, this paper proposes a quantification method of personal risks in a substation based on behavioral tendency, considering the influence of the insufficient method of determining the risk hazard value and the phenomenon of artificial selection tendency on the quantification of personal risks. The hazard value was further subdivided, and the mean of hazard value was processed by the Bootstrap method to simulate statistical uncertainty. For the problem of artificial selection tendency in risk assessment, the prospect theory is used to multiply the value of risk by a coefficient of behavioral tendency ω, so as to reflect the response psychology of managers when facing events with different risk values.The results show that this method is more effective in quantifying personal risks, which can provide references for managers to carry out practical risk response strategies and resource allocation schemes, and further guarantee the safety of operation workers.

DOI

10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2021.04.005

First Page

37

Last Page

43

Download

Share

COinS