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Keywords

photovoltaics; cable life; Arrhenius model; uncertainty analysis

Abstract

With the increase in the penetration rate of distributed photovoltaic power，the power flow may be sent back to the grid side，posing new aging challenges to low-voltage （LV） photovoltaic cables.In view of the insufficient research on cable aging under the photovoltaic power flow reversal，a cable life estimation method for the LV photovoltaic power flow reversal scenario is proposed.Firstly，based on Kirchhoff ’s current law，the current distribution of the cable under different gradients is calculated，and the temperature field of the cable is analyzed using finite element simulation software.Secondly，the Arrhenius lifetime model is used to evaluate the expected lifetime，aging rate，and lifetime loss of the cable under different operating conditions.Finally，uncertainty analysis of the temperature and lifetime of the cable is conducted through a Monte Carlo simulation.The research results show that in the scenario of photovoltaic power flow reversal，the average insulation temperature of the cable is generally higher than the normal operating temperature，and there is a 52.93% probability that it will be higher than the rated working temperature of 80 ℃.The cable lifetime is generally lower than the normal operating temperature，and there is a 53.78% probability that it will be shorter than the lifetime under the rated working temperature.

DOI

10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2025.04.027

First Page

305

Last Page

312

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