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Keywords

photovoltaic power generation; output prediction; module failure rate; Monte Carlo method; reliability model

Abstract

To study the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) power generation in the context of "double high" (i.e., high penetration of renewable energy plus high penetration of power electronics equipment) of PV systems, this paper proposes a method of analyzing the reliability of PV output based on the combination of output prediction and an improved Monte Carlo method. Firstly, output characteristic analysis and output prediction are performed on the PV historical data to obtain the probability distribution of PV output under different meteorological conditions. After that, a probabilistic model of PV system reliability is established by taking into account the failure rate of PV modules. Then, a Monte Carlo method is established by introducing adaptive sampling to assess the output reliability of the PV system under different meteorological conditions. The data are summarized to obtain the annual PV output reliability. Finally, the rationality and validity of the analysis method are verified by the data from actual PV stations. The results demonstrate that the proposed model and reliability evaluation system can correctly and comprehensively reflect the output reliability of PV power stations.

DOI

10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2026.02.017

First Page

190

Last Page

200

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