An evaluation method of carrying capacity of new energy based on two-stage scenario reduction for multi-time-scale time series simulation

Authors

• Yongming JING, State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute, Taiyuan 030021, ChinaFollow
• Qiang LI, State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute, Taiyuan 030021, China
• Linna ZHANG, State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Co., Ltd., Taiyuan 030021, China
• Hongli LIU, State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute, Taiyuan 030021, China
• Minru XU, State Grid Shanxi Economic and Technical Research Institute, Taiyuan 030021, China
• Weihao WANG, School of Electrical Engineering and Autom ation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Keywords

new energy; time series simulation; carrying capacity; scenario reduction

Abstract

To tackle the intricate computat ional challenges arising from the multi-time-scale coupling in evaluation of the carrying capacity of new energy, a novel evaluation methodology is proposed. This approach, grounded in multi-time-scale time series simulation with a two-stage scenario reduction strategy, is designed to achieve precise and efficient evaluation of the carrying capacity of new energy. First, a time-series production simulation model of the power system is formulated, utilizing the minimization of operational costs as its objective function. A penalty mechanism is incorporated to quantitatively constrain photovoltaic curtailment, wind power curtailment, hydropower curtailment, and load shedding. The operational constraints of aggregated thermal power units and pumped-storage hydroelectric units are also fully considered in the model. Subsequently, a two-stage scenario reduction framework based on the general algebraic modeling system-scenario reduction (GAMS-SCENRED) tool is developed. By integrating key metrics such as absolute probability distance, relative probability distance, and marginal relative probability distance, the optimal number of reduced scenarios and their specific configurations are determined. Then, a comprehensive evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of new energy is established. From the perspectives of power supply capability, reliability, and security, this system quantifies the impacts of high-penetration new energy integration on the power grid, thereby providing robust support for grid planning, operation regulation, and decision-making processes. Finally, an actual power grid data from a province in China was used as a case to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can accurately identify the optimal number of reduced scenarios, significantly enhancing both the evaluation efficiency and accuracy of the carrying capacity of new energy.

DOI

10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2026.02.020

First Page

226

Last Page

235

Recommended Citation

JING, Yongming; LI, Qiang; ZHANG, Linna; LIU, Hongli; XU, Minru; and WANG, Weihao (2026) "An evaluation method of carrying capacity of new energy based on two-stage scenario reduction for multi-time-scale time series simulation," Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology: Vol. 41: Iss. 2, Article 20.
DOI: 10.19781/j.issn.1673-9140.2026.02.020
Available at: https://jepst.researchcommons.org/journal/vol41/iss2/20